A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
